1. Odds can go up and down before the
event even started. At times these changes can be pretty big. Reason for the
change are usually factors which influence the game like injuries, suspensions,
motivation and so on. Over a longer period you will find reoccuring bias and
thats where you act. Trading before kick off is the skill of judging the way
odds are going to change.....
Trading is
done best at betting exchanges like Betfair, Betdaq or Betsson. Playing at only
one provider saves you unneccessary calculating as this is all done by the
exchange.
If you
suspect odds to fall you would buy these odds (BACK) first. Once the odds have
fallen you would than sell (LAY). The „What if“ figure and eventual profit/loss
will be shown by your betting exchange immediately. .
If you
suspect odds to rise, you would Lay the current odds first before Backing them
once they have risen. Timing is of greatest importance and can only be improved
with experience. This will take time. Be prepared to take small losses rather
than risk all if odds dont develop the way you anticipated.
2. This
system can also be used for ouright markets. The odds will change in relation
to the position the team/athlete is in. The odds are seen similarly to the
price of shares at the stock market. The odds of a team winnig a tournament for
example will become smaller after progressing to the next round.
3.3. More often then not it is worth looking
at exactly the same bet at different markets for one event. You can find them
to have different odds so you can trade yourself a little profit.
These bets
are for example:
- 3 way (1X2) is equivalent to the
Asian Handicap -0,5
- No goalscorer is equivalent to
correct score 0:0
- Winning nationality is equivalent
to winning athlete
During the
event (In Play)
Trading can
also be done while the event is taking place. If you intend to trade „In Play“
please ensure yourself the event will go „In Play“ before placing a bet as not
all events do so. The odds will change more violently depending on the
happening at the event. At football, goals or red cards are the main cause for
big changes of odds. Here are 3 different strategies while trading „In Play“.
1. 1. LAY X (Football, Hockey...) For this
system you need 2 fairly similarly strong teams. The draw is being „layed“
before the Kick off. The aim is for one team to score a goal (more than 85% of
football games have min. 1 goal ) which will raise the odds for the draw as it
is now less likely. The Draw will now be „backed“ at higher odds than it was
„layed“ before. With the right stake it will garantee a profit at any result of
the event. If the game stays goalless for a long time you have to decide to
either trade out with a small loss or risk all by letting it run to the end
(speculating for a late goal).
2. 2. Win/Loss (Basketball, Volleyball...):
This system suits particularly Basketball games. The favourite does not always
start off well which makes their winning odds rise quite a bit. It is now when
the higher odds are being „backed“. Once the favourite found their stride and
start controlling the game, their odds will drop back down again. Now the
favourites should be „layed“ (at lower odds than „backed“). This will again
garantee a profit whatever the outcome of the game.
3. 3. Over/Under (Football, Hockey...):
Watching a football game you usually can judge the type of game, meaning a very
attacking game or with the focus on defense. A very open game is likely to have
many goals. In this case the Over 2.5 should be „backed“. After an early goal
the odds will go down as it is now more likey to be a game with more than 2.5
goals. The lower odds should now be „layed“ to garantee a profit at any outcome
of the game.
The basics
are always the same.
You need to
recognise the movement of odds and take advantage of it. Sports like Soccer,
American Football, Basketball, Tennis or Hockey are very well suited for
trading due to the relatively big changes of odds In Play. But beware, please
study odds and their movements accurately as this strategy requires experience
and a lot of practice. Please do not just gamble as this is likely to end in
tears.
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