Thursday, 16 January 2014

Sure bet 5

A very common strategy is the betting on only underdogs or favorites. But that doesnt mean you always bet on big odds(underdog) or small odds (Favorites)...



UNDERDOG – the majority of punters are likely to bet on the favorite. But sometimes it is not worth betting on the favorite as the odds have no value. Meaning the offered odds are in no relation to the likelyhood of the favorite winning the game. It is therefore more value to bet on the underdog.

Example SC Freiburg   15.0            X   5,5    Bayern Munich 1.3

The majority would think the game is an easy win for Bayern Munich and bet on the 1.3. But would Bayern really win 4 in 5 games (away) or rather Freiburg really would not win 14 games of 15? If you consider Head to Head statistics, current form and background information the bet on the underdog is sometimes more worthwile. To cover the annoying draw many punters would play this game as a Double Chance or even as an Asian Handicap +1.5 on Freiburg. This will vastly reduce the odds but the draw and even a close 0:1 loss has been covered. As you can see, the bet on the underdog does not always mean big odds. .


FAVORITE – It would be to easy to just simply bet on every favorite to win. Favorites should be carefully considered as too many slip up. The current form is very important as is the impact of other competitions such as Champions League or the Europa League. It is common for important players to rest the League game before an important international fixture. The motivation of a massiv favorite towards the league game against an underdog after a very good game in the Champions League is sometimes pretty low. Therefore not a game to bet. With careful consideration it is possible to make a long term profit with odds below 1.4. Of course, the Asian Handicap can produce bigger odds for the favorite by giving the underdog a fictional lead of X goals. This can be used if the favorite is likely to score 2 or more goals.

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